Data on U.S. home prices released today, January 26th, show a mix picture and while there has been some improvement in prices, it is far from clear there’s a sustained broad-based recovery.
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the annual rates of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composities continue to improve, in spite of price declines across many markets during November 2009. This marks approximately 10 months of improved readings in the annual statistics, beginning in early 2009, and is the third consecutive month these statistics have registered single digit declines, after 20 consecutive months of double digit declines.
The annual returns of the 10-City and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices, declined 4.5% and 5.3%, respectively, in November compared to the same month last year. All 20 metro areas and both Composites showed an improvement in the annual rates of decline with November’s readings compared to October.
“While we continue to see broad improvement in home prices as measured by the annual rate, the latest data show a far more mixed picture when you look at other details.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Only five of the markets saw price increases in November versus October. What is more interesting is that four of the markets – Charlotte, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa – posted new low index levels as measured by the past four years. In other words, any gains they might have seen in recent months have been erased and November is now considered their current trough value. On the flip side, there are still some markets that continue to improve month-over-month. Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Diego and San Francisco have seen prices increase for at least six consecutive months. Looking at the annual figures, four markets – Dallas, Denver, San Diego and San Francisco – have finally entered positive territory, something we really haven’t seen in at least two years in most markets.
“To add more mixed signals, we are in a seasonally weak period for home prices, so the seasonally-adjusted data are generally more positive, with 14 of the markets and both composites showing improved prices in November. On balance, while these data do show that home prices are far more stable than they were a year ago, there is no clear sign of a sustained, broad-based recovery.”
