The Ever-Unreliable Unemployment Rate

It’s become a figure of terror; misunderstood and wrongly applied, it initiates panic in the populace.  News commentators raise it on a pole and predict the economy is going down for the last time…

That’s a lot of power to give an undifferentiated Unemployment Rate.  As of this writing, the Unemployment Rate is at 9.8% (please, no screaming allowed).

Always concerned for the unemployed (at least those who want to be employed), a good understanding of the Unemployment Rate is necessary to retain hope and stave off discouragement.

The US Department of Labor conducts a monthly survey of 60,000 homes, categorizes each person over 16 as part of the Labor Force or the unemployable.  They do so by asking the unemployed if they are looking for work, and if they have, in fact, actively looked for work in the last four months.  Then they add up those in the Labor Force and the portion unemployed and wizard up the Unemployment Rate.

So, assuming .0015 of the population is a good sample (it isn’t) and assuming everyone tells the truth (they don’t), the Unemployment Rate is still a useless number, it doesn’t tell you who is unemployed. What percentage of your demographic is unemployed?  Do executives make up that number or do minimum wage workers?  What age?  Even the Department’s breakdown is vague (two categories for age; 16 to 19 and 20 on up).

The DoL claims to weed out the unemployable, composed of those physically and mentally unable to work.  Unfortunately, the people interviewed in the poll may not classify themselves thus.  Further, people on assistance programs who have no intention of working, claim they are looking for employment to retain eligibility of benefits (which is not to say all those on assistance fall into that camp).  Thus the numbers are skewed by the mentally ill and infirm who simply don’t realize they are unemployable, and those protecting their aid eligibility.

Further, unemployment is fluid, not static.  People transition from job to job; are the 9.8% unemployed the same individuals unemployed during the same time last year?

The simple truth is no statistically miniscule sample is going to be accurate, and even if it was, it is a number of averages, and you are far from average, right?  Do not be discouraged by the Unemployment Rate.  Jobs are out there.  Companies may not be advertising them, but they still need quality people.  Consider the early 80’s when the Unemployment Rate was at an all-time modern high of 10.5%; innovation reigned within the marketplace.  The PC was invented and refined; consumer electronics shrank in size and grew in quality.  CD’s were invented.  Almost every sector innovated new products and channels leading to a giant drop in unemployment, because the market needed people to manage, expand, and improve business.Do you find it difficult to find hope?  Perhaps you’ve been that rare individual stuck in unemployment despite impressive skills?  Or maybe you think you’re going to be in that small percentage soon as companies restructure to weather the present storm?  Consider that you’re not the problem; it could be your approach!

Navigating the job market is a full time job… a lesson few have come to accept.  With the Unemployment Rate on the rise (nothing new once again) and with predictions stating real relief may be another five years away (yes, I said five years); now is not the time to sit back and wait for a higher tide.  On this note, send me your thoughts and if you need help in your career management approach or design, shoot me an email.

Danny Huffman, MA, CEIP, CPRW, CPCC, author, educator, and co-owner of Career Services International/Education Career Services.  He may be reached at [email protected] or visit his Career Blog at www.educationcs.wordpress.com.