General Electric (GE) has started to see the first “glimmers of hope” in the world economy, according to Nani Beccalli, CEO of GE International, which is in charge of all its business outside the United States. George Soros, on the other hand, believes we could end up with a depression unless we handle the current crisis well, saying “the size of the problem is actually bigger than in the 1930s.”
It’s fascinating to see these two views clash, especially in light of Soros’ own investment philosophy of reflexivity, in which people base their decisions on their own perception rather than on reality. Of course, it’s difficult to know yet which is the reality, but three things are certain: GE is the world’s largest industrial group; we would rather believe we’re coming out of this recession soon; and Soros made a ton of money by identifying a disjunction between perception and reality.
As the world’s largest industrial group, one cannot dismiss what GE sees. Quite the contrary. If GE says it sees several encouraging bits of economic data around the world that it didn’t see two months ago, then there’s little doubt it does.
What are these bits? “Signs of life” in the U.S. and European retail sectors, improving profits among European banks, recent rise in the Baltic dry shipping index, which acts as a proxy for global trade, and increasing house sales in the U.S. in February.
Beccalli quickly hedges, though, saying these aren’t “the light at the end of the tunnel but rather some little sparkles.” And if it was just Beccalli, it might have been easier to dismiss, but it’s also others like Cisco’s (CSCO) Stefano Pambianchi, who said technology companies were also seeing some rebound in orders.
