New population estimates released today by the University of Florida show that Florida’s population should rebound this year. According to the UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, the Sunshine State is expected to add 23,000 residents between April 1, 2009 and April 1, 2010.
“Based on changes in electric customer data, we believe Florida’s population has increased slightly over the past year,” said bureau Director Stan Smith who led the research, in a statement. “This may be an indication the state’s economy is no longer declining at the rate it had been before.”
The bursting of the housing bubble, severe national recession and significant job losses led to a loss of population between 2008 and 2009.
“It appears the state’s population loss was a one-year occurrence,” Smith said. “Even so, Florida’s growth will be very slow during the early years of the new decade.”
The bureau estimates the total number of state residents will grow from 18,750,000 to 18,773,000 between April 2009 and April 2010.
Smith does not anticipate that Florida’s annual population growth will return to 300,000 until 2014 or 2015, the average annual increase over the past 30 to 40 years. “Population grew by more than 400,000 residents a year during the housing boom between 2003 and 2006,” he said.
As regards long-term projections, the state’s population is expected to reach approximately 21,247,000 in 2020; 22,574,000 in 2025; 23,821,000 in 2030; and 24,971,000 in 2035.
The bureau has forecast that the biggest numerical increases between 2010 and 2035 would take place in large counties. Orange County is projected to add the most new residents, 512,200; followed by Hillsborough, 471,800; and Miami-Dade, 457,200.
“Large markets attract businesses and have more opportunities to draw job seekers. Also, migrants are often attracted by social and family connections with people who moved to an area previously,” Smith said.
Monroe is the only county projected to lose population over the next 25 years, declining by about 4 percent, Smith said. The county has little vacant land that can be developed and the area has a high cost of living, he said.
