The latest Florida economic forecast released on Tuesday by UCF’s Institute for Economic competitiveness finds that 2011 should mark the beginning of a long, slow and steady decline in unemployment. The emphasis is still on slow, the reports states as it may be 2020 before unemployment falls below 6 percent again.
“There’s no holiday miracle here,” Sean Snaith, director of the Institute said. “But there are some signs of hope, such as projected growth in retail and gross state product.”
The December Report, which provides forecasts through 2013, covers 12 metropolitan regions. These are: Naples, Daytona Beach-Deltona, Gainesville, Ocala, Lakeland, Palm Bay-Melbourne, Pensacola, Miami, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Tampa Bay and Orlando-Kissimmee.
Highlights of the December Florida Forecast 2010-2013 include:
- After two years of contracting, Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 3.0 percent in 2010, 2.6 percent in 2011, then accelerate to 4.0 percent in 2012, and reach 4.8 percent in 2012.
- After a wobbly start in 2010, retail sales should finish stronger for the year. Retail sales will accelerate in 2011 and 2012 and will grow at an average pace of 5.7 percent during 2011 to 2013.
- The sectors forecasted to have the strongest growth during 2010 to 2013 are Professional and Business Services (7.5 %); Trade, Transportation and Utilities (2.6%); Education and Health Services (2.6%); Manufacturing (0.9%) and Leisure and Hospitality (0.9%).
- Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 1.9 percent in 2011; 3.3 percent in 2012; and 3.9 percent in 2013. It will be 1st quarter of 2014 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels.
- The labor market is more than fashionable late to Florida’s economic recovery. Unemployment will remain stubbornly high and will not fall below 10 percent until the 1st quarter of 2013.
- Florida’s housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009 after a harrowing plunge. Housing starts will climb even more slowly than was expected as of last quarter’s forecast. Total starts, at an annual rate, will waver between 44,000 to 50,000 through mid-2011. After that a long, slow climb will commence. There will be no V-shaped recovery for housing in Florida.
Specifically regarding the Orlando-Kissimmee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), the forecast finds that this area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators measured. Other highlights for the Orlando-Kissimmee area (Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties) are:
- Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.5 percent annually, the highest of the forecasted MSAs. The metro area will see an average unemployment rate of 10.7 percent.
- In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be Professional and Business Services with an annual growth rate of 7.6 percent. This will be followed by Education and Health Services, with an annual growth rate of 3.0 percent.
