Florida Hits Recession Bottom and Remains There, Economists Say

Florida’s economy has hit bottom in the recession but appears likely to continue scraping along with the state’s housing market still serving as an anchor, state economists said Friday.

The state’s Economic Estimating Conference concluded Florida’s unemployment rate is on track to continue what has been a three-month improvement from a 12.4 percent peak, with manufacturing and health care industries now hiring. But the construction industry, which has lost 28,000 jobs over the past year, is forecast as facing another slowdown because of the deepening housing slump.

Tim Campbell, an analyst with the state’s Economic and Demographic Research Office, said housing has been staggered by a steady 50,000 foreclosures a month combined with tightening credit markets, resulting in a 14 percent decline in home construction through 2010’s first quarter.

“It’s really a recession within a recession,” Campbell said. “I think Florida has essentially hit bottom. But we’re at a flat part at the bottom of the recession.”

Economists conceded they still don’t have a good handle on the Gulf oil spill’s impact on the state’s economy. While much of the tourism decline is concentrated in the Panhandle, analysts conceded it is having a ripple effect across the state. Along with the spill’s effect on tourism, the weak economy globally is reducing the pace of visitors to Florida from Europe and Japan.

“We’re seeing a slight reduction in the number of visitors coming here, and that’s having a major impact,” said Clyde Diao, an economist with Gov. Charlie Crist’s office.

The News Service Florida