Two years after the Great Recession officially ended, job prospects for young Americans remain historically grim. More than 17 percent of 16-to-24-year-olds who are looking for work can’t find a job, a rate that is close to a 30-year high. The employment-to-population ratio for that demographic—the percentage of young people who are working—has plunged to 45 percent. That’s the lowest level since the Labor Department began tracking the data in 1948. Taken together, the numbers suggest that the U.S. job market is struggling mightily to bring its next generation of workers into the fold.
This is scary stuff, not only for the economy as a whole, but also for Mr. Obama’s re-election.
Not surprisingly, polls suggest that America’s young people have grown more pessimistic about the economy and their own future fortunes. Generation Opportunity, a nonpartisan, nonprofit youth-outreach group headed by former Bush administration official Paul Conway, compiled polling data this summer showing decayed economic confidence among the so-called millennials: More than half say that the United States is seriously on the wrong track, and a similar number say they are not optimistic about the nation’s economic future. More than half also assert that they’re not confident that the country will be the global economic leader in 10 years. More than three-quarters say that, given the current state of the economy, they have delayed or will delay buying a home, paying down student debt, obtaining more education, saving for retirement, changing jobs or cities, getting married, or making some other major life decision.
Young voters stampeded to the polls for candidate Obama in 2008, topping their 2004 turnout by more than 3 million and breaking, 2-to-1, in his favor. A drop in youth participation, or a shift toward a GOP candidate, could complicate Obama’s reelection dramatically.
