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Not so Fast: Re-election is Not Assured

If the election for president were held today, almost half of Americans, 49%, are unlikely to vote for Barack Obama, up from 47% who said this in early May, a Harris Poll finds. Just over two in five Americans (43%) say they are likely to vote for him, down from 46% who said so earlier this month.

Even more concerning for the White House and Obama’s re-election committee is that one in five Democrats, 20%, say they are not likely to vote for Mr. Obama, while 7 percent at not at all sure.

On the bright side, currently, 45% of Americans give the President positive ratings for the overall job he is doing while 55% give him negative ratings. Earlier this month, right after the death of the terrorist leader, 46% gave President Obama positive ratings and 54% gave him negative marks.

There are two groups that give President Obama higher ratings. Among regions, 54% of Westerners give him positive marks compared to 40% of Southerners, 42% of Easterners and 44% of those in the Midwest. Almost two-thirds of those with a post graduate degree (64%) give the President positive ratings as do 49% of college graduates and half of those with some college education (50%) while just one third of those with a high school diploma or less (34%) give President Obama positive ratings.

Also slipping downward slightly is the direction of the country. Just under two in five Americans (38%) say the country is going in the right direction, down one point from earlier this month. Slightly over three in five say the country is going off on the wrong track (62%), up one point from early May. One reason for this overall sense of dissatisfaction is still the economy. One-third of Americans (33%) say that employment/jobs are one of the two most important issues for the government to address, unchanged from January. One in three U.S. adults (29%) says the most important issue is the economy overall, up from 24% who said this in January. Rounding out the top five most important issues to be addressed is healthcare (18%), the budget deficit/national debt (17%) and gas and oil prices (12% up from 1% who said this in January).

Congress, which did not get much of a post-Osama killing bump, also hasn’t seen their ratings change much in the past two weeks. Earlier in the month, 13% of Americans gave them positive ratings while 87% gave them negative ones. Now, 12% of U.S. adults give them positive marks while 88% of U.S. adults give Congress negative ratings for their overall job.

The Harris Poll surveyed 2,184 adults online between May 9-16, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

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