Israel, On Its Own

U.S. relations with Israel could not be any more tense. Last week, we saw the new Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani take the stage at the United Nations General Assembly and introduce a new moderate tone toward reconciliation. An anticipated encounter between Rouhani and Obama did not occur on the assembly floor, but a phone call did take place later. While Rouhani was on his way to the airport, he received a phone call from Obama. The two spoke about a deal over Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Obama even ended the call by say goodbye in Farsi. Before this phone call, no U.S. leader had spoken with an Iranian president since the Islamic revolution ousted the U.S.-backed shah in 1979.

Israel seemingly sees new writing on the wall. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his U.N. speech castigated U.S. outreach to Iran. He went through a list of reasons why Iran is lying about its pursuit of the bomb. On Monday night, he met with President Obama in the Oval Office. Common ground is becoming difficult to be reached as U.S. foreign policy with Iran is changing with an eye toward formal relations. Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama, is seemingly trying to write new history with Iran.

Meanwhile, Israel feels it is losing its best friend. Although Netanyahu has said they will act alone against Iran in order to stop their development of nuclear weapons, that is impossible now. Iran says its program is solely for peaceful purposes and it is ready to negotiate with the United States.

A unilateral attack on Iran would be very difficult for Israel, which would have numerous targets over very hostile enemy airspace. Moreover, it is not certain that Israel could inflict much damage by themselves.

So, if Israel is sincere about their fear that Iran is developing nuclear weapon capabilities, the big question is how long will these negotiations last before Iran does develop a nuclear weapon? Israel’s rhetoric has been that Iran is just 6 months away. But we’ve been hearing this for the past two years. Netanyahu may describe Rouhani as a wolf in sheep’s clothing but the question may soon be asked, who is crying wolf?