Mayor Dyer’s lawyer announced that the City of Orlando is likely to move the elections of 2016 forward by five months, to November 2015, rather than have them on the same day as the Presidential Preference Primary in 2016. Why?
The Presidential Primary of 2016 is likely to be very similar to that of 2012 in turnout. This is because the Republicans have a contest and Democrats have already identified their candidate, Primary or not. The electorate for the Municipal Elections of 2016, if they are conducted on a separate date and contested is also very likely to be much like the 2012 municipal elections – the same or similar people will go to the polls.
So what analysis drives the proposal to move the Municipal elections AWAY from the PPP? Political calculation.
If the Municipal election is conducted on top of a PPP with only Republicans contesting, the vote of the city of Orlando swings wildly away from the Democratic Majority to a huge Republican Majority.
If the electorate looks like the PPP of 2012, 70%+ of the voters will be Republicans as opposed to 35% being Republican in the Municipal elections standing alone. Democratic participation rises from about 30% in a PPP scenario to 50% of the voters being Democrats in the stand alone Municipal race.
Mayor Dyer and his lawyer can read numbers. But the individual Commission race show similar numbers!
District 2 (occupied by Tony Ortiz, a Republican), has a turnout above 75% for Republicans if the date of the election stays on the probable PPP as opposed to 44% Republican if it is on the stand-alone Municipal date.
District 4 (occupied by Patty Sheehan, a Democrat), has a turnout above 75% for Republicans if the date of the election stays on the probable PPP as opposed to 45% Republican if it is on the stand-alone Municipal date.
District 6 (occupied by Sam Ings, a Democrat), has a turnout above 50% for Republicans if the date of the election stays on the probable PPP as opposed to 80% Democrat if it is on the stand-alone Municipal date.
Simply stated, a majority of the Commissioners AND the Democratic Mayor would face a significant threat to their continuity in office if faced with a Republican opponent and an election on the SAME day as the PPP in 2016. The City attorney claims that she does not want to infect this race with “partisanship” but she is merely ensuring better odds for her own Party and the Mayor by moving the date. In 2000, 2004, and 2008, when there was no City Hall concern about “partisanship”, the Mayor was happy because a DEMOCRATIC Primary was on the schedule. The elections occurred on the same date and nobody said a word.
Also the move to bring the election date forward offers added security for incumbents. Nobody is likely to be able to effectively challenge Tony Ortiz if he has an election just seven months from now. Somebody MIGHT be able to take him on in a year. Similarly, the Democratic incumbents, like the Mayor, are unlikely to get any opposition in a race in which they are assured that nobody has the time to raise the money to challenge them. My guess is that this has been the plan for many months and they are just toying with us announcing it now.
It will be interesting to see how a council made up of six of seven Members who have not had to face the electorate at all in a campaign responds to the public. Probably not much will change and the elected Commissioner and Mayor will be less responsive than ever to the electorate at large.
Doug Head is a former Orange County Democratic Party Chair
