Take these polls as seriously as you want, but two new Public Policy Polling polls have President Obama up in both battleground states, news that is sure to elate Democrats across the nation.
According to the newly released PPP Florida poll, Obama is up by just one point in the sunshine state, 49/48.
As early as last week, Obama was down by one point to Romney in Florida, giving hope that the Republican challenger may actually switch the state back to red.
Looking at some of the numbers within the PPP Florida poll, Obama holds a very strong lead over Romney with young voters, African-Americans, and women. He’s still struggling to flip Romney’s lead with independents, but he has enough support from unaffiliated voters to keep Florida blue.
Obama’s lead is within the margin of error and by no means guarantees a victory for him in Florida. It is enough for many to believe that he will continue to build upon that lead by Election Day.
In Ohio, Obama is up by four points. He has held a steady lead there and does not seem to be losing support in one of America’s most watched battleground states. Obama’s lead in Ohio is contributed to his support amongst African-Americans, women, and young voters, same as Florida.
But where Romney really loses out is on the economy. The president leads Romney on one of the most important questions we continue to hear: Who do you trust on the economy? With this latest poll, Ohioans will take Obama over Romney by a full six percentage points.
If Romney cannot win that question, what ground does he have to stand on to win the White House?
In the lead up to November sixth, the Electoral College map is still tilting toward Obama. According to New York Times political statistician Nate Silver, Obama’s chances of re-election have surged to a healthy 74 percent.
It is also interesting to note that Silver’s own research indicates that no candidate with an advantage of more than 3.5 points in any particular state has lost that state. So for the moment, Obama’s Ohio lead looks safe.
But with so much good news for the Obama team and early voting numbers in Orange County slanting Democrat, the national polls still have the battle between Obama and Romney as a dead heat.
While it seems that he has a decent lead in Ohio, he still has more work to do in Florida.
-JH
