Bill McCollum and Rick Scott’s embrace of an Arizona-style anti-immigration law is looming as a possible wild card in next week’s Republican primary for governor, with some pollsters and party activists saying it could hold down turnout among usually reliable Hispanic voters.
While polls show the law requiring police officers to check suspected illegal immigrants’ status is supported overwhelmingly by likely GOP primary voters, among Hispanic Republicans, support drops sharply and outright opposition climbs. Some experts warn the issue has proved divisive enough to keep Hispanic voters away from both contenders – adding another level of uncertainty to an already volatile Tuesday primary.
“For most Hispanic voters, Scott and McCollum are mostly unfamiliar candidates whose introduction to them is that they both advocate something that many see as culturally discriminatory,” said Fernand Amandi, managing partner with Bendixen & Associates, a Miami polling firm that tracks Hispanic voting and has worked for Democratic candidates.
“It’s certain to create a chilling effect. Why would Hispanic voters vote for either guy?” he added.
Scott’s support for tougher sanctions on illegal immigration has been a central part of his campaign, which has been powered by an almost $40 million television advertising push. By contrast, McCollum, after fumbling the issue initially – when he voiced support for the Arizona law but said it wasn’t needed in Florida – has now tried to come out forcefully in favor of such a measure.
Last week, McCollum joined state Rep. Will Snyder, R-Stuart, in unveiling proposed legislation requiring police to check immigration status during traffic stops and make businesses use a federal database to screen new hires to ward off illegal workers. The measure also would subject illegal immigrants who commit crimes to tougher penalties than U.S. citizens.
“We have the police powers, not the federal government,” McCollum said in endorsing a Florida standard.
McCollum, the state attorney general, said he felt the Florida proposal would withstand court scrutiny. A federal court last month blocked key portions of the Arizona law, siding with the Obama administration which argued it encroached on federal authority over immigration policy and enforcement.
McCollum, however, was rebuked by several prominent Hispanic supporters, with U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Miami, a member of his Hispanic leadership team, saying she was disappointed by his move and lobbyist and fund-raiser Ana Navarro broke openly with the campaign.
The issue remains raw with many Hispanic Republicans. McCollum, who earlier in his campaign worked hard to galvanize support from South Florida Hispanic leaders, could have the most to lose if this community does not turn out strongly for him Tuesday, analysts said.
A Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey last week showed McCollum the favorite of 57 percent of Hispanic Republicans, compared with just 21 percent for Scott.
“This kind of rhetoric is emotional, but it’s not logical,” Rep. J.C. Planas, R-Miami, vice-chairman of the Legislature’s Hispanic caucus, told the News Service. “There are some Hispanics who favor getting tough on illegal immigrants. But to most it sends a very bad message and I think it’s going to depress turnout.”
In Miami-Dade County, the county with the largest Hispanic population, early voting has been ongoing for more than a week. Although turnout is modest, with just more than 17,000 voters casting ballots in voting’s opening nine days, it is on pace with past elections, officials said.
According to state elections data, Hispanics form 11 percent of Florida’s 4 million registered Republicans, compared with 11.7 percent of the state’s 4.6 million Democrats. But records also show that 12 percent of Hispanic Republicans voted in the past four primary contests, while only 3.4 percent of Hispanic Democrats did.
As a more reliable voting constituency within the GOP, Hispanics are usually courted fiercely by candidates. But this year, analysts say the effort to get tougher on immigration is polling so well among non-Hispanic voters that Scott and McCollum appear willing to risk alienating the smaller Hispanic base.
“It’s pretty clear candidates see being anti-illegal immigrant really moves the needle with Republican voters this year,” said Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist. “But there’s a risk for Scott and McCollum. Not only do you lose some voters in the primary, you cannot win in the general election without significant Hispanic appeal.”
Indeed, 42 percent of Hispanic Republicans have voted in Florida’s past four general elections – double that of Hispanic Democrats. More than 420,000 independent and other voters also identify themselves as Hispanic.
“In bad economic times, it’s always easy to blame somebody, and it seems like illegal immigrants are that this year,” Wagner said. “But to attack immigrants in this state seems like political suicide for a party and its candidates.”
Jim Kitchens, a Central Florida pollster, said the push against undocumented immigrants plays differently among Hispanics of different generations and among Cuban-Americans, who typically faced fewer hurdles in establishing legal residency in Florida. But the Arizona measure drew criticism from many that it could expose Hispanics to harassment by law enforcement, a concern that continues to cloud the issue for many voters.
“I think it makes Hispanic voters very nervous,” Kitchens said. “Whether it turns off voters – the tale of the tape will be Tuesday.”
By John Kennedy
The News Service of Florida
