Floridians remain gloomy over current conditions as the consumer confidence index remained at 65 in November, unchanged from last month and just six points higher than a record low of 59 set in June 2008, the University of Florida said Tuesday.
“Consumers are slightly less optimistic about current conditions than they were last month and slightly more optimistic about long run conditions,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, which conducted the survey.
Of the five categories used to measure consumer confidence, two decreased, two increased and one remained unchanged, resulting in the index being unchanged at 65, as in October, last month, McCarthy said. Perceptions, for example, that compare personal finance levels with those of a year ago fell two points to 52. However, expectations that personal finances will improve a year from now went up three points to 79.
Respondents’ overall view that the U.S. economy will improve over the coming year fell two points to 52. And their expectation that the economy will improve over the next five years remained unchanged at 67.
While there is some optimism, this didn’t necessarily indicate a recovery is on the way. Most of the index components, for instance, are lower than they were at the same time a year before. Not only is the consumer confidence level stuck at historically low levels, it “has previously been associated with recessionary levels,” said McCarty.
Florida continues to suffer from too high levels of unemployment – 10.3 percent – in October and a housing market still in the dumps. The median price for a single-family home at $131,550 is down from both September and October of last year.
A bright spot has been Florida’s tourism which spurred job creation in the leisure and hospitality sectors. But McCarthy anticipates the future will be mixed.
“The Gross Domestic Product (the nation’s annual product and an indicator of economic health), though revised downward for the third quarter, was still positive at 2 percent nationally,” he said. “Florida’s gross state product is forecast to be low, but positive.”
Even though retail sales were down in October and consumer confidence levels are low, McCarthy predicted modest growth this holiday season compared with 2010.
