Florida is likely to gain two new seats in Congress after the once-a-decade reapportionment because of population growth, according to new population estimates released this summer, a study out Sunday finds.
A study by Election Data Services and released Sunday at a National Conference of State Legislature’s redistricting seminar in Rhode Island, show Florida going from 25 seats to 27 seats, gaining one more seat than many had previously expected based on earlier population change estimates.
The changes in the congressional landscape mirror life: people are moving from New York to Florida, apparently. The report finds the Empire State set to lose two seats instead of one as earlier thought.
In addition to Florida and New York, two other states showed changes in the report that weren’t previously expected. Minnesota is now expected to keep all eight current congressional seats instead of losing one as earlier projected and Missouri is now expected to drop from nine seats to eight.
“We had an inkling of the Minnesota (and) Missouri switch because both states were right on the edge for that last seat in our 2009 study,” said Kimball Brace, President of Election Data Services, Inc. “But we were most surprised at the shift of an additional district out of New York and down to Florida, even though that follows the population movement in this country since World War II.”
The population estimates were created by GIS and demographic company ESRI, which uses Census Bureau population estimates supplemented with additional data to track county-level population trends, from building permits and housing starts, IRS data, postal service data, and other sources.
The report noted that the projection isn’t a certainty for some states, including Florida, which gains seat number 27 in the estimate with just under 85,000 people to spare. That means if Florida’s population growth is less than expected by that much, it could see just one seat.
ESRI and EDS also noted that a major factor in population changes in the states this year is likely to be overseas military personnel returning to the country, and where they end up.
“Because the United States is currently in the midst of two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (unlike what was occurring at the last apportionment process in 2000), the addition of military and federal workers living abroad are likely to have a more significant affect in 2010,” the report said.
The biggest gain at the end of the decade will be in Texas, which the new estimates project as a four-seat gainer in Congress. South Carolina, Georgia, Washington, Nevada, Utah and Arizona are all expected to gain a seat as well.
In addition to New York, Ohio is also expected to lose two seats, while states projected to lose one seat in the latest data are Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa and Missouri.
The projections portend changes in four out of the country’s five biggest states, with Texas and Florida gaining, New York and Illinois losing, and only California remaining the same.
By David Royse
The News Service of Florida
