By Lucius Gantt
After the election of President Barack Obama, many African Americans said to themselves, “If Barack Obama can win an election, I can too!”
That comment was ambitious, but unrealistic.
Most of the African American seeking victories in 2010 elections in the cities where Black-owned newspapers are published will lose. Not all Black candidates are running in predominately Black Districts but those Blacks running for larger statewide or federal positions possibly have a better chance than Blacks running in districts with ample numbers of Black voters.
Why? Let me explain.
First of all, most Blacks running for office will be running against other Blacks so most of the losses will come as a result of that.
Other Blacks candidates that will look defeat right in the eye are Black candidates that take Black voters for granted. If you think that every Black voter will vote for you because you’re Black, you must be brain damaged. Those days are over. Black voters want politicians and candidates that can deliver. They want candidates that will stand up and speak out on issues that mean something to Blacks. And, if a candidate will do that, it doesn’t matter what color the candidate is.
Some Black candidates will lose because they will refuse professional help and/or advice. Campaigns are so scientific and technological these days. If your campaign has a misunderstanding of “political timing”, media production, media placement, direct mail, robo calls, geo-demographic targeting, polling and other areas, your campaign will be at a disadvantage.
I could go on and on but one critical factor that impacts losses in elections by Black candidates is the fact that many African American candidates simply cannot generate votes and turnout voters that support them.
A thirty-percent turnout of registered voters is bad news for Black candidates unless they are running in a predominately Black district. If Black voters make up ten, twenty or thirty percent of all registered voters in a district, it is easy to see how any very low turnout would be disastrous for a Black candidate.
The winning Black candidates have winning teams. Winners will chose proven political performers to help them and not just depend on the classmate, friend, coworker or family member to guide them to election victory.
History is the best teacher. If you want to find out what someone can do on a campaign, find out if he has worked in any meaningful capacity on other campaigns. In every city and state, there are Negroes running around saying they are politically talented and influential. The moment you announce your candidacy someone will run up to you and say, “I can get you the Black vote!”
A smart politician will ask the person, “Tell me how will you do that?”
Finally, the most disgusting way for Black candidates to lose is for the Democratic or Republican Party to use a Black candidate as a sacrificial lamb. The Party usually will encourage a Black to run for office merely to try to get Blacks to the polls to vote for some white candidate.
The party won’t fund the Black candidate, won’t share party technology and resources with the Black candidate and basically leave the Black candidate out to dry in a desert of defeat.
You can’t use 1950 campaign tactics and expect to win in 2010. Flyers on cars in Black church parking lots the Sunday before an election will get you nowhere!
It’s not too late for Black candidates to create and develop a winning campaign effort but they must have a plan unique to their campaigns that will result in victory. They must have a campaign team of the best minds available for African American candidates.
And, they must out work their political opponents.
The Gantt Report prays for the success of all Black candidates even though Stevie Wonder can see that most Black candidates don’t have a clue about how to make political victory happen.
