A Democratic president has rarely lost a re-election bid. This has happened only once in the last 120 years. And this was to Jimmy Carter in 1980.
Hence, should President Obama run again, the odds heavily favor him to win. And as Matthew Dowd argues in his cogent article in the National Journal, three factors must be in play for there to be an Obama defeat in 2012. These are:
- An economy that is creating very few net jobs in 2012 and continued increases in food and gas.
- No new major international crisis arises that causes people to rally behind Obama because of his competent handling of it.
- A Republican nominee emerges who is charismatic, communicates well and is in tune with the country’s economic and social needs.
Dowd argues that things like campaign cash, the quality of campaign staff and how much use is made of modern technology in the campaign will have little to do with whether or not Obama is re-elected.
