As they get squeezed by lagging tax collections, Florida lawmakers also face a general-revenue budget hole of $900 million to $1 billion next year to fund the Medicaid program.
State analysts Monday reviewed data about Medicaid costs and are expected to release detailed projections Tuesday. But lawmakers have already signaled they will look for ways to cut Medicaid spending during the 2012 legislative session — as they also grapple with a broader budget shortfall.
Amy Baker, coordinator of the Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research, said she will make a presentation to senators Thursday that will include a total for the broader shortfall. Baker and other forecasters last week cut about $1.6 billion in projected tax collections for this year and the 2012-13 fiscal year, as the state’s economy continues sputtering.
The new Medicaid projection for the 2012-13 fiscal year will not come as a big surprise: Senate Health and Human Services Appropriations Chairman Joe Negron, R-Stuart, announced earlier this month he expected a shortfall of nearly $1 billion.
But in one bit of good news, the Medicaid budget picture for the current year won’t be as bad as expected. Negron had said the program might be as much as $300 million short, but the projection released Tuesday could show a deficit of roughly $50 million to $65 million.
The Medicaid budget is made up of a combination of state, local and federal money. But lawmakers focus heavily on state general revenue that goes into the program, as that money also can be used for a wide range of competing needs, such as schools and prisons.
This year’s Medicaid budget includes about $4.3 billion in general revenue, according to information from a meeting of the analysts Monday. That number could jump to more than $5.2 billion next year, unless lawmakers make cuts in the program.
Part of the projected shortfall stems from the state’s need to replace temporary federal money that helped fund Medicaid after the economic recession. Lawmakers though have long complained about growing costs in the program, which serves about 3 million low-income people.
During this spring’s session, lawmakers approved a sweeping proposal that would shift almost all Medicaid beneficiaries into managed-care plans. The proposal is aimed at helping hold down costs, but it remains uncertain whether it would save money during the 2012-13 fiscal year.
Along with needing federal approval — a lengthy process — the managed-care system also would need months to contract with health plans, enroll beneficiaries and get started.
“There’s just too many unknowns at this point,” Eric Pridgeon, the top staff member on the House Health Care Appropriations Subcommittee, said during Monday’s meeting.
By Jim Saunders
